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and much of that is attributable to fears about the fiscal cliff. all bets could be off the table if we go off the fiscal cliff. >> sure if you go over the cliff. and you'll still have some tax hikes. we have consumer spending around 2% in real terms in line with income. we don't think the whole tax hikes will go into effect early next year. so yeah if you go over the cliff, lots of things consumers, businesses, you name it. but i don't think we're going to go over the cliff. at least we're noi not going to dive over. and i think without that, the dividend income and net consumer spending, consumer confidence number watch what people do. not what they say. other measures of confidence have been doing much better and that'll rebound. >> if we just back up for a second, steven, we talk about the fiscal cliff every day. those who are in the market talk about the fiscal cliff every day. does the average consumer out there moms and pops, do they talk about the fiscal cliff? does it factor into their spending efforts? >> not really. that's a great questio
and much of that is attributable to fears about the fiscal cliff. all bets could be off the table if we go off the fiscal cliff. >> sure if you go over the cliff. and you'll still have some tax hikes. we have consumer spending around 2% in real terms in line with income. we don't think the whole tax hikes will go into effect early next year. so yeah if you go over the cliff, lots of things consumers, businesses, you name it. but i don't think we're going to go over the cliff. at least...
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but it's also important to remember that the fiscal cliff isn't only tax rates and spending cuts. the fiscal cliff also includes the nation's agriculture policy, which expires at the end of the year. it includes patches to medicare formulas. patches to social security formulas. so this is a huge mess of issues. we're not even talking about those issues yet. congressional negotiators and the white house aren't talking about these huge host of other issues that are on the table. the thought is if they can get past tax rates and spending cuts, then they will be able to deal with the peripheral issues. but we don't have much time. if a deal isn't reached or a framework isn't reached in the next week or, so it's going to be a big problem. >> all right, thanks for that. good to see you. > >>> nokia -- we'll tell you more when we come back in a few moments. [ male announcer ] this december, remember -- ♪ you can stay in and like something... ♪ [ car alarm deactivates ] ♪ ...or you can get out there with your family and actually like something. ♪ the lexus december to remember sal
but it's also important to remember that the fiscal cliff isn't only tax rates and spending cuts. the fiscal cliff also includes the nation's agriculture policy, which expires at the end of the year. it includes patches to medicare formulas. patches to social security formulas. so this is a huge mess of issues. we're not even talking about those issues yet. congressional negotiators and the white house aren't talking about these huge host of other issues that are on the table. the thought is if...
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cliff by pulling back on spending or hiring. why haven't we seen that show up in the jobs report? is there a concern that we might see more of a pullback into next year? >> i think that's exactly what this survey is saying. about 50% have already taken some action. i think companies right now are waiting to see what's going to happen and it really comes down to two major issues. if we can get this fiscal cliff issue resolved, then we are looking at a pretty optimismic outlook from our members. but if we don't get the fiscal cliff, almost 60% said they'll be looking at cutting jobs and/or layoffs. >> cfos are notoriously less sang win than ceos. it's not particularly surprising that this group is expressing some contingency plans. but on average, they expect the u.s. to add of a million jobs next year. so kind of a divide here between the view that on the other hand things are getting better and on the other hand there's a big uncertainty out there still. >> i think finance people always want to balance the book and ceos tend to
cliff by pulling back on spending or hiring. why haven't we seen that show up in the jobs report? is there a concern that we might see more of a pullback into next year? >> i think that's exactly what this survey is saying. about 50% have already taken some action. i think companies right now are waiting to see what's going to happen and it really comes down to two major issues. if we can get this fiscal cliff issue resolved, then we are looking at a pretty optimismic outlook from our...
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to reach a deal on the fiscal cliff. but use that debate as an economic one, says our next guest. chairman of the council of economic advisers under george w. bush and adviser to presidential candidate mitt romney. he's in new york city this morning. glenn, great to see you. >> good morning. likewise. >> what exactly does that mean? because of the context of higher taxes, and spending cuts, you would think there would be an economic impact. how can it not involve economics? >> well, there's certainly an economic impact. my point was just that the real issue for us is that our budget rules were designed for a different set of problems. you know, historically, movements in debt were about war and peace. you borrowed money to fight a war, you paid it off in peace time. now we're talking about the rise of the entitlement states. social security and medicare. we need different budget rules. this isn't just about a fiscal cliff. >> the demographics don't exactly help the problem either. we're in a time when the population is g
to reach a deal on the fiscal cliff. but use that debate as an economic one, says our next guest. chairman of the council of economic advisers under george w. bush and adviser to presidential candidate mitt romney. he's in new york city this morning. glenn, great to see you. >> good morning. likewise. >> what exactly does that mean? because of the context of higher taxes, and spending cuts, you would think there would be an economic impact. how can it not involve economics? >>...
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. >> you have said in the past that you think that going over the fiscal cliff is in president obama's best interest. >> i really believe that. frankly, the lack of credible solutions and backtracking like the amount of spending. doubling the taxes he wants raised and the fact he wants stimulus package that he knew nobody was going to support here. doesn't look like he's trying to engage in ernest discussions, which leads me to believe he wants us to go over the cliff and be able to blame the republicans and maybe it's more about politics. >> congress people themselves said the election was a referendum on the president's ideas. part of that was the very clear message of tax hikes on the top 2%. >> that's great, but he didn't win my district and i did. so my mandate is something else. >> good appoint. >> if we only represent our own slices we'll never get anything done. >> you hit the nail on the head. what we're being asked is the republican conference, jump off the cliff alone. if this is going to be a deal, we've got to grab hands together and jump off together. they have got to put
. >> you have said in the past that you think that going over the fiscal cliff is in president obama's best interest. >> i really believe that. frankly, the lack of credible solutions and backtracking like the amount of spending. doubling the taxes he wants raised and the fact he wants stimulus package that he knew nobody was going to support here. doesn't look like he's trying to engage in ernest discussions, which leads me to believe he wants us to go over the cliff and be able to...
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yet, here we are on the edge of this fiscal cliff. we're not sure what will happen. many people predicting we'll go over the cliff. if we go over the cliff and the automatic spending cuts take effect and the tax increases take effect, what do you think happens to the economy? >> well, at the brt meeting that you mentioned, where the president was nice enough to come over, the question was asked, if we go over the fiscal cliff, how many businesses in this room will reduce capital investment? remember, i just said -- and it's very demonstrable that capital investment is what drives gdp growth rate and job creation. that tells a story right there. if we go across the fiscal cliff, we will have an economic contraction or slow down at best. >> how are things looking right now ahead of the holidays? i'm sure your company is real busy, fedexing gifts. what are your expectations for this holiday season? >> well, you know, the 300,000 wonderful teammates of fedex are working very hard. we publicly forecast a couple weeks ago that on the 10th we would move 19 million shipments
yet, here we are on the edge of this fiscal cliff. we're not sure what will happen. many people predicting we'll go over the cliff. if we go over the cliff and the automatic spending cuts take effect and the tax increases take effect, what do you think happens to the economy? >> well, at the brt meeting that you mentioned, where the president was nice enough to come over, the question was asked, if we go over the fiscal cliff, how many businesses in this room will reduce capital...
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especially as the fiscal cliff gets closer. jane wells is talking to shoppers in canoga park, california for us. hi, jane. >> hey, sue. it is ugly sweater day. this one lights up. by the way, folks want you to know i did not buy this here. they would never sell such a monstrosity. but does it make you want to jump off the fiscal cliff? do consumers even know what the fiscal cliff is? wul mart says before the election about 25% of its core customers did. now 75% do. is it making any impact? >> 50% of our core customers are saying that all of this debate and discussion will effect their christmas spending this year. >> now nearly everyone we spoke to knows about the fiscal cliff but not everyone thinks about it. >> are you concerned about the fiscal cliff? >> absolutely. absolutely. >> no, i'm not, actually. i think they will fix fiscal cliff and i'm a positive person. >> i don't know how much it really impacts us but it impact the economy so i think we have had a really stressful year with business and health, so we haven't put
especially as the fiscal cliff gets closer. jane wells is talking to shoppers in canoga park, california for us. hi, jane. >> hey, sue. it is ugly sweater day. this one lights up. by the way, folks want you to know i did not buy this here. they would never sell such a monstrosity. but does it make you want to jump off the fiscal cliff? do consumers even know what the fiscal cliff is? wul mart says before the election about 25% of its core customers did. now 75% do. is it making any...
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the next thing after fiscal cliff is potential for government shutdown. we're almost over the fiscal cliff and looking at government shutdown. there's no end on short term but long term. >> except for a the rise above stuff you said, marc, you want to marry me? you're absolutely right. i don't like government to do things, everybody getting along, you're so right. there's this huge perception somehow government has always gotten along in america until now. isn't it crazy? it's such a small voice, so few people who think that way. >> exactly. it's a rosy eye'd view at the past. the founding fathers never got along and competed with each other bitterly. >> did you think you would get a marriage proposal on tv this morning? sn>> i will have to consult wit my current wife. >> let meask you something else in the headlines, this news apple may be getting closer to producing an apple tv. your take? does it really happen? >> nobody knows because apple is locked down like a vaulted in the valley. i don't know anything. the assumption of the valley is they will do
the next thing after fiscal cliff is potential for government shutdown. we're almost over the fiscal cliff and looking at government shutdown. there's no end on short term but long term. >> except for a the rise above stuff you said, marc, you want to marry me? you're absolutely right. i don't like government to do things, everybody getting along, you're so right. there's this huge perception somehow government has always gotten along in america until now. isn't it crazy? it's such a...
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cuts that would come at the end of the year if we go over the fiscal cliff. the white house saying they don't expect we will. they still hope it can be prevented, but they have to start planning. also, speaker of the house john boehner meeting with small business leaders on capitol hill where he reiterated some of his key points. again, just within the past hour. take a listen. >> business owners with us today are here to highlight president obama's demand to raise tax rates instead of cutting spending. his plan will hurt nearly 1 million small businesses around our country. that will affect hundreds of thousands of jobs. >> reporter: and guys, there are republicans here on capitol hill who are urging the speaker to cut a deal with the president. i talked to one of the earliest republicans to say, you know what, let's take a the president up on his offer to extend the bush tax cuts for everybody under $250,000 and at least take that uncertainty off the table and then continue to negotiate the rest to have later. some of the republicans are now coalessing arou
cuts that would come at the end of the year if we go over the fiscal cliff. the white house saying they don't expect we will. they still hope it can be prevented, but they have to start planning. also, speaker of the house john boehner meeting with small business leaders on capitol hill where he reiterated some of his key points. again, just within the past hour. take a listen. >> business owners with us today are here to highlight president obama's demand to raise tax rates instead of...
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cliff or whether a deal is reached to avert that, middle class taxes are going up, and so is spending. so there's a lot of cynicism in this process. >> real quick -- >> that's why the president has the edge. >> bottom line, the republicans are poised to take a fall? is that what your numbers show you? >> they are poised to take a hit on this right now. longer term, tim pact will weigh on the obama administration if the economy doesn't recover. >> all right. many thanks, scott rasmussen, appreciate it very much. >> thanks. >>> with just 26 days until we fall off the tax and fiscal cliff, two dozen house republicans have apparently defected from the boehner plan and signed a bipartisan letter with democrats. people are now asking is there a fallback position for the gop? well, here now to tell us is house majority whip california republican kevin mccarthy, the number three man. mr. mccarthy, as always, thank you for coming back on the show. can i get your comment on this letter, two dozen republicans, they're talking about tax rate flexibility along with a bunch of democrats. what's you
cliff or whether a deal is reached to avert that, middle class taxes are going up, and so is spending. so there's a lot of cynicism in this process. >> real quick -- >> that's why the president has the edge. >> bottom line, the republicans are poised to take a fall? is that what your numbers show you? >> they are poised to take a hit on this right now. longer term, tim pact will weigh on the obama administration if the economy doesn't recover. >> all right. many...
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now these same customers, 15% of our customers are telling us this discussion about fiscal cliff will affect what they spend on christmas. >> and most americans aren't close to finished with holiday shopping yet. giving retailers a hope for a big boost in the last few weeks beforesom christmas. 58% of those surveyed said they completed half or less of their holiday shopping so far. i've got a little guilt on that front. >>> joining us for more, global ceo of sanrio. welcome. waving to the world there. >> yes. >> happy holiday. >> wearing your brand, as well. >> happy holiday from mr. mann. >> we should point out that mr. men is a key part of your strategy which is changing, is it not? >> exactly. last year we started to did mergers. this is our first acquisition, international acquisition. >> which is buying the company that owns -- people may have seen these in book stores -- the little miss sunshine and little -- what's the male equivalent? >> yes. there's little miss series and mr. man series both. >> yeah. >> total over 60 characters. >> why buy that? what are you going do? >> we
now these same customers, 15% of our customers are telling us this discussion about fiscal cliff will affect what they spend on christmas. >> and most americans aren't close to finished with holiday shopping yet. giving retailers a hope for a big boost in the last few weeks beforesom christmas. 58% of those surveyed said they completed half or less of their holiday shopping so far. i've got a little guilt on that front. >>> joining us for more, global ceo of sanrio. welcome....
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>> look, the fiscal cliff, if we go over, is going to affect municipals in a significant way. they're going to face that loss of funding and spending cuts, so -- i think that's going to be an issue regardless. i don't see, right now, that people are investing in municipals because of fiscal cliff issues. they are investing with the idea that taxes are going up, though it's likely that there will be some modification of the tax exemption. >> alexandra, going to leave it there. thank you for coming by. >>> coming up next, how america's role in the global energy market could be in for a big makeover. we make sure you're ready for us. >>> plus, what you need to know and breaking down what's at stake. stick around. [ male announcer ] feeling like a shadow of your former self? c'mon, michael! get in the game! [ male announcer ] don't have the hops for hoops with your buddies? lost your appetite for romance? and your mood is on its way down. you might not just be getting older. you might have a treatable condition called low testosterone or low t. millions of men, forty-five or older
>> look, the fiscal cliff, if we go over, is going to affect municipals in a significant way. they're going to face that loss of funding and spending cuts, so -- i think that's going to be an issue regardless. i don't see, right now, that people are investing in municipals because of fiscal cliff issues. they are investing with the idea that taxes are going up, though it's likely that there will be some modification of the tax exemption. >> alexandra, going to leave it there. thank...
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and the fiscal cliff. republicans want a melt on xwiemtment and tax reform from the president. democrats insist this will not happen until the gop agrees on a tax hike. senator dick durbin saying no deal on the debt without a tax hike of the wealthy. >> i can't tell you, i don't want to do it, the president doesn't want to do it, but we need to solve the problem been we cannot allow the reckless position to drive this economy into another recession. >> some suggesting that it might be better to cave to the president now on taxes and keep up the fight on spending. >> if we were to pass, for instance, raising the top two rate and that's it, all of a sudden we do have the leverage of the debt ceiling and we haven't given that up. >> meantime, one influential voice says enough is enough. >> that's like betting your country. there's something terribly bizarre and juvenile about that is to think your party comes ahead of your country. i don't go for that at all. >> that, of course, was alan simpson, the other ha
and the fiscal cliff. republicans want a melt on xwiemtment and tax reform from the president. democrats insist this will not happen until the gop agrees on a tax hike. senator dick durbin saying no deal on the debt without a tax hike of the wealthy. >> i can't tell you, i don't want to do it, the president doesn't want to do it, but we need to solve the problem been we cannot allow the reckless position to drive this economy into another recession. >> some suggesting that it might...
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to the republicans to come up with the spending cut proposal, not the democrats. do you agree with that? i mean, shouldn't both sides be sitting down and putting their cards on the table? we only have a few days left before the deadline here, sir. >> i'm having trouble hearing you and i got the gist of it. here's what i would point out. i have speaker boehner's letter a to the president in my hand where they call for $900 billion in cuts but don't specify how they are going to get the cuts. the president, on the other hand, if you look at his budget, it's on the internet, he spells out in great detail how he's going to get the $600 billion cuts. another very important fact to know is that the republican ryan budget, the one that passed the house last year and senate republicans supported, that budget has less medicare savings over the next ten years than the president's budget has medicare savings. they just don't like the way the president achieved his medicare savings. >> how would you achieve the medicare savings? for example, are you ready to say that you woul
to the republicans to come up with the spending cut proposal, not the democrats. do you agree with that? i mean, shouldn't both sides be sitting down and putting their cards on the table? we only have a few days left before the deadline here, sir. >> i'm having trouble hearing you and i got the gist of it. here's what i would point out. i have speaker boehner's letter a to the president in my hand where they call for $900 billion in cuts but don't specify how they are going to get the...
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the fiscal cliff hits. the arguments i just pa about the withholding tables and cutting spending, are not generally talked about. a lot of people deny they can be done. we're confident they can. so the question then becomes what's the impact, where is the impact. and the impact is equity markets end of next week will say these guys aren't going to get it done, we won't have a deal january 1, everything falls apart, that's assuming of course we all get past december 21st. >> so basically week and counting before you think the equity market really drops significantly? >> if we do get a deal done do, we just maintain the 2% that we're stuck in with the high unemployment and not go down? or does it actually allow us to start growing again? is anybody talking growth? >> we're talking growth. >> is it possible to ever get back to that in this environment? >> it is. you have a lot of problems with the piece. >> do you briyou believe if you rote deficit -- two different ways. you either keep the government that you
the fiscal cliff hits. the arguments i just pa about the withholding tables and cutting spending, are not generally talked about. a lot of people deny they can be done. we're confident they can. so the question then becomes what's the impact, where is the impact. and the impact is equity markets end of next week will say these guys aren't going to get it done, we won't have a deal january 1, everything falls apart, that's assuming of course we all get past december 21st. >> so basically...
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joe, the big headline is the fact you lowered your guidance and blamed the fiscal cliff. how specifically will it affect -- >> sure, in our fiscal quarter, the current fiscal quarter ends january 31st, so we're you havely sensitive to the mix between what they spend in february and march versus what they spend? january and we're watching closely, but we have concern that the q1 spending may be unusually backweighted into february and march this year. >> but aren't you providing the kind of accountability and targeting that advertisers increasingly need? i mean, wouldn't advertisers, you know, when they're strapped for cash, be shifting out of businesses like newspapers into pandora? it seems like you should le thriving despite what's going on. >> and absolutely, if you ever look at the numbers, we had a terrific revenue we just reported. 60% year on year, and even at the reduced revenue guidance for the current quarter, we're looking at just under 50% year on year growth, so still tremendous progress, and particularly in the mobile world, where we looked to continue the t
joe, the big headline is the fact you lowered your guidance and blamed the fiscal cliff. how specifically will it affect -- >> sure, in our fiscal quarter, the current fiscal quarter ends january 31st, so we're you havely sensitive to the mix between what they spend in february and march versus what they spend? january and we're watching closely, but we have concern that the q1 spending may be unusually backweighted into february and march this year. >> but aren't you providing the...
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i want to ask you about the fiscal cliff, the state of play. there's revenues on the table. there's tax rate increases on the table. i don't know if there's spending on the table. what's your thinking prigt now? >> that it's a really, really bad idea to raise taxes. if you want your economy to grow, you should do the opposite. we have to cut taxes. that's how i'd fix the economy. leave more money in the private sector. the president is adamant about raising taxes and he's dead wrong. >> there are some people saying we need a deal to avoid a huge tax increase but year end that would throw us into recession. just a thought, would you compromise in terms of let's say a smaller tax rate increase -- let's say the top rate goes to 37% instead of 40%, maybe the threshold goads es to $500,000 $750,000 rather than $250,000? does that interest you? >> no. but what about means testing for entitlement. why don't we say the rich get less social security and they pay more for their medicare? it meets the president's animus that we must get more money out of the rich. let's just send less
i want to ask you about the fiscal cliff, the state of play. there's revenues on the table. there's tax rate increases on the table. i don't know if there's spending on the table. what's your thinking prigt now? >> that it's a really, really bad idea to raise taxes. if you want your economy to grow, you should do the opposite. we have to cut taxes. that's how i'd fix the economy. leave more money in the private sector. the president is adamant about raising taxes and he's dead wrong....
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so when we look at the fiscal cliff and everything else in terms of actual cuts in spending, everybody recoils in horror because they know it implies. >> you made your point, though, we surrendered to fdr, and instead of supplementing people, instead of letting them earn their own success, we're going to somehow try to deal with outcome rather than opportunity and pay for it. and you want to pay for -- >> no, i don't. >> in a fairer society. what you see as a fairer society. >> i didn't say it was a fairer society. but chris brought up an important point. and i want people to talk about the "wall street journal" today. we're not talking about cutting spending, not talking about cutting growth rates, which is a huge difference, one reason why people like me look at former presidential candidate mitt romney talk about npr or planned parenthood. the number one answer for balancing the budget is foreign aid. which if you really wanted to balance the budget and you don't always have to go to the department of justice or whatever it may be. but over the next ten years, 90% of federal outlays
so when we look at the fiscal cliff and everything else in terms of actual cuts in spending, everybody recoils in horror because they know it implies. >> you made your point, though, we surrendered to fdr, and instead of supplementing people, instead of letting them earn their own success, we're going to somehow try to deal with outcome rather than opportunity and pay for it. and you want to pay for -- >> no, i don't. >> in a fairer society. what you see as a fairer society....
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. >> public care, confidence numbers, spending, any relationship to the fiscal cliff at five. >> i don't know. i just don't know. i think anecdotally, from what i have been able to observe, no. but i can't speak for that. the journal today has the lead stories of consumer spending starting so slow. and in part, they cite the fiscal cliff. i think if you were out there, you would get answers that would not necessarily describe it correctly. >> it's a shame it's called fiscal cliff. and called radical tax increase. it was meant to cause a recession. the government felt in its infinite wisdom that -- >> you think it's a radical tax increase? >> i think so, yeah. i think you'll notice it in your paycheck for certain. >> that's absolutely for sure. >> your first check, second paycheck, then you get the chaos that bowles mentioned. and the chaos is, wow, i have much less to spend. i didn't know this was coming. alternative minimum tax being the silent killer who really understands how much more they have to pay, check at the end of the year. do the math. >> we saw it in the consumer sentiment
. >> public care, confidence numbers, spending, any relationship to the fiscal cliff at five. >> i don't know. i just don't know. i think anecdotally, from what i have been able to observe, no. but i can't speak for that. the journal today has the lead stories of consumer spending starting so slow. and in part, they cite the fiscal cliff. i think if you were out there, you would get answers that would not necessarily describe it correctly. >> it's a shame it's called fiscal...
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the fiscal cliff, a combination of tax increases and spending cuts. right now there is a political standoff, which the head of the imf, christine largarde, has a duty to stop. >> the fiscal cliff -- when you talk to people around the world, how concerned are they about the ramifications of americans going over this cliff? >> people around the world are concerned about it. it used to be the case that they were more concerned about the eurozone than the fiscal cliff. now things have changed. they often ask about it and its resolution. >> what do you think the impact could be globally? we're looking at a time when the global recovery is fragile at best. >> the u.s. is about 20% of the global economy. if the u.s. suffers as a result of the fiscal cliff, a complete wiping out of its growth, it is going to have repercussions around the world. if the u.s. economy has two% less growth, it will probably be a 1% less growth in mexico, canada, in europe, and japan. there will be ripple effects. >> are you worried about this? >> yes. of course i worry about it. t
the fiscal cliff, a combination of tax increases and spending cuts. right now there is a political standoff, which the head of the imf, christine largarde, has a duty to stop. >> the fiscal cliff -- when you talk to people around the world, how concerned are they about the ramifications of americans going over this cliff? >> people around the world are concerned about it. it used to be the case that they were more concerned about the eurozone than the fiscal cliff. now things have...
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there really is a fiscal cliff and concern about rising taxes in those consumer sentiment numbers creeping in and those higher income households pulled back on spending expectations on big ticket items of vehicles and appliances and consumer durables. that's significant. in terms of sandy, one thing i would note is on unemployment survey it was taken on november 5th, the day before the election. remember, there was a nor'easter a few days later that compounded some of the disruptions related to sandy and many of the unemployment insurance claims because people couldn't get out to make the unemployment claims didn't occur until the peak in the middle of november. i think the timing of this survey really did matter in this. steve made a good point on earlier than usual thanksgiving maybe swamping some of the retail effects that we would have seen from sandy because of the seasonals and the way the data was captured. i don't think underlying economy is that much stronger with downward revisions we saw in previous months. i do think the fact that timing and nor'easter was also in here and that
there really is a fiscal cliff and concern about rising taxes in those consumer sentiment numbers creeping in and those higher income households pulled back on spending expectations on big ticket items of vehicles and appliances and consumer durables. that's significant. in terms of sandy, one thing i would note is on unemployment survey it was taken on november 5th, the day before the election. remember, there was a nor'easter a few days later that compounded some of the disruptions related to...
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. >> will the resolution of the fiscal cliff and even some progress on our long-term problems, knowing that at best we're just putting off austerity, sooner or later it's coming, right? higher taxes and lower government spending, right? you combine that with reinhardt, rogoff and the idea we're in a 2% world all of a sudden, would doing the fiscal cliff make it possible to do 5% or are we just -- we know austerity's coming and we know -- i'm saying we've got a lot of debt -- i'm saying that we are maybe in a new -- we might be in a new normal. is there any reason to think we could do a 4% or 5%? >> nobody wants to take an automatic hit. the number you want to achieve and achieve it quickly, that's one aspect, but no one wants a huge hit, for example, to defense spending. >> do you think we'll get to 7% in unemployment? >> i do. 6.9%. >> even though we're facing the same kind of austerity as europe. >> i think american companies put americans back to work. >> and freeing up the corporate cash will overcome -- >> get rid of the uncertainty. >> why would the cash be freed up? if you are r
. >> will the resolution of the fiscal cliff and even some progress on our long-term problems, knowing that at best we're just putting off austerity, sooner or later it's coming, right? higher taxes and lower government spending, right? you combine that with reinhardt, rogoff and the idea we're in a 2% world all of a sudden, would doing the fiscal cliff make it possible to do 5% or are we just -- we know austerity's coming and we know -- i'm saying we've got a lot of debt -- i'm saying...
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. >> fiscal cliff, of course, is a complete madeup deadline. >> discretionary spending is 1 trillion, 280 billion. we're 18 billion short of having nothing for the entire government. >> what do you think the best possible outcome could be? >> something like simpson-bowles, and work off that. >> when a deal is announced, if the left and the right aren't angry, there's not a real deal. >> we're back on "squawk." and we've got an update on a very interesting/crazy story. john mcafee, holed up in a miami hotel after his deportation from guatemala. we've been bringing you different aspects of this throughout the past couple of weeks. the anti-virus software founder has been evading authorities in belize who want to question him in connection with the death of a neighbor who was shot, if you remember. mcafee said he did not kill the neighbor. fear for his life if he turned himself in to authorities in belize, he was tweeting and blogging about all this as it was going on. mcafee announced on his website last evening that he arrived in miami's south beach neighborhood. american airlines said
. >> fiscal cliff, of course, is a complete madeup deadline. >> discretionary spending is 1 trillion, 280 billion. we're 18 billion short of having nothing for the entire government. >> what do you think the best possible outcome could be? >> something like simpson-bowles, and work off that. >> when a deal is announced, if the left and the right aren't angry, there's not a real deal. >> we're back on "squawk." and we've got an update on a very...
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Dec 11, 2012
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i'm thinking, after listening this morning, how i learned to stop worrying and love the fiscal cliff. is that where we are right now? >> you know, jim, this shouldn't be that hard. the idea that we've got to get a $4 trillio over ten years, with a mix of revenue increases, spending cuts. you know, when you look at the size of our economy, when you're looking at what's asked of people all across europe, uk, all in emerging nations, this is so small on a relative basis, that it's almost unamerican we're not going to be able to step up and get it done. you know, i'm optimistic that we're going to be able to avoid the fiscal cliff. we're not going to go over that, we're not going to see sequester, the challenge is going to be, is the deal going to be big enough, comprehensive enough that we take that minimum of $4 trillion off this $16 trillion debt over the next ten years. >> we're going to intervene, no matter what, in the trends of american business, meaning as soon as this one is over, we'll have a debt ceiling. because we can't get investment going in this country. that's why people
i'm thinking, after listening this morning, how i learned to stop worrying and love the fiscal cliff. is that where we are right now? >> you know, jim, this shouldn't be that hard. the idea that we've got to get a $4 trillio over ten years, with a mix of revenue increases, spending cuts. you know, when you look at the size of our economy, when you're looking at what's asked of people all across europe, uk, all in emerging nations, this is so small on a relative basis, that it's almost...
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jim, a reasonable proposal for the fiscal cliff? modest proposal. i've read things like that before. >> i'm talking about the -- look, did i mention once the tax increase? >> no. >> i'm going for quick spending cuts. because we just -- we agreed to give the rich people that deal two years ago, we added a trillion and then another trillion. i don't know why a republican ever agreed to that. i'm trying to figure out -- >> it wasn't -- >> who the heck -- >> wasn't because of the 2%. >> because it kept -- >> it kept the deal from happening. >> by given the -- added 2 trillion to the deficit. i hated that. try to find out how to cut that deficit now. not the future. >> we've got a lot more 20 come this morning. >> thanks, guys. crazy conversation. we'll see where it goes. comments, questions about anything you see on "squawk," tweet us @squawkcnbc. coming up, holiday central. the ceo of phillips v-van heuse. >> who? phillips-van heusen joining us on the set. he's dressed head to toe in calvin klein and he's here with one of his company's largest sharehol
jim, a reasonable proposal for the fiscal cliff? modest proposal. i've read things like that before. >> i'm talking about the -- look, did i mention once the tax increase? >> no. >> i'm going for quick spending cuts. because we just -- we agreed to give the rich people that deal two years ago, we added a trillion and then another trillion. i don't know why a republican ever agreed to that. i'm trying to figure out -- >> it wasn't -- >> who the heck -- >>...
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when you think about fiscal cliff, the bush tax cuts have collapsed, sequestration cuts spending, and then there's a trillion dollar tax increase that obama has over the next decade to pay for obamacare. interestingly, he decided to delay those taxes until after he was reelected. but they start kicking in in january. very painful and hit the middle class hard. the reason not to raise taxes is to have a spending problem. we spent too much money. raising taxes is not part of spending less. it's not part of a compromise or anything. it is what politicians do instead of. reforming of - instead of reforming government. europeans eventually put in energy taxes and that is what obama is doing. he spent his five trillion dollars in the first term and wants to take us a trillion dollars more in debt over the next decade. there's no way to raise taxes to pay for that. we have to rein in spending. raising taxes is what politicians do when they don't have the courage to reform government. host: you can read this new press release on the internet. canada and middle-class families face high medical
when you think about fiscal cliff, the bush tax cuts have collapsed, sequestration cuts spending, and then there's a trillion dollar tax increase that obama has over the next decade to pay for obamacare. interestingly, he decided to delay those taxes until after he was reelected. but they start kicking in in january. very painful and hit the middle class hard. the reason not to raise taxes is to have a spending problem. we spent too much money. raising taxes is not part of spending less. it's...
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Dec 9, 2012
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the fiscal cliff will result in tax increases and federal spending cuts. >> both parties are kind of, hey, i'm going to do my thing, you're going to do your thing, nobody seems to want to give in. they're going to have to because this country's in a dire situation. >> many shoppers agree, as tax paying citizens, one of the top things on their wish list for christmas is for the president and congress to compromise and to get a deal done. >> please start working together and remember the people who put you in office. >> nadia ramdass, wbal-tv 11 news. >> jews around the world celebrated the beginning of eight-day hanukkah festival saturday evening by lighting the ceremonial lamps. in chicago, hundreds gathered to watch the lighting of an eight-foot menorah. hanukkah commemorates the jewish uprising in the second century b.c. against the greek syrian kingdom. the holiday last it is eight days. according to tradition, when the jews rededicated the temple in jerusalem, a single vial of oil burned for eight days. and here in baltimore, some people celebrated the first night of hanukkah with
the fiscal cliff will result in tax increases and federal spending cuts. >> both parties are kind of, hey, i'm going to do my thing, you're going to do your thing, nobody seems to want to give in. they're going to have to because this country's in a dire situation. >> many shoppers agree, as tax paying citizens, one of the top things on their wish list for christmas is for the president and congress to compromise and to get a deal done. >> please start working together and...
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. >> reporter: there was some public movement in the fiscal cliff standoff today. instead of holding dueling press conferences, republicans and democrats traded barbs on the house floor. >> where are the president's spending cuts? the longer the white house slow- walks this process, the closer our economy gets to the fiscal cliff. >> reporter: behind the scenes, progress is being made, but democrats are still arguing they've given ground in previous budget battles. that's one reason they are holding firm on higher taxes now. >> $1.6 trillion in cuts. "where are the cuts?" they are in bills that you, mr. speaker, have voted for. >> reporter: and there were new calls for more tax revenue today. warren buffett, vanguard founder john bogle, and financier george soros were among the famous names to call for a tougher estate tax. their proposal would exempt couples with up to $4 million in assets from the estate tax. above that level, estates would pay a 45% tax rate, rising to 50% or more on very large estates. supporters say that would both bring in badly needed revenu
. >> reporter: there was some public movement in the fiscal cliff standoff today. instead of holding dueling press conferences, republicans and democrats traded barbs on the house floor. >> where are the president's spending cuts? the longer the white house slow- walks this process, the closer our economy gets to the fiscal cliff. >> reporter: behind the scenes, progress is being made, but democrats are still arguing they've given ground in previous budget battles. that's one...
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tell me about energy policy and where it fits in with the fiscal cliff. what we will spend money on and how we were tightened our belts. >> the major place it fits is the right policy would create an environment which would produce a lot more revenue. that would help to reduce the debt. the federal government doesn't spend much money on energy. energy research is about $6 billion a year. i would like to see it doubled. this report is a blueprint for independence and i think it is the right blueprint. we are not in a position to be held hostage by anybody. it also focuses on find more and use less. what we can do in the federal government is i think invest in research and getting a 500-mile battery for electric cars and getting solar energy that is 1 kilowatt installed and finding a way to capture carbon from coal plants that can be turned into fuel that is commercially sold. we should look at the model of unconventional gas in terms of how our system and federal research and our system of private properties have produced a situation where we have a massiv
tell me about energy policy and where it fits in with the fiscal cliff. what we will spend money on and how we were tightened our belts. >> the major place it fits is the right policy would create an environment which would produce a lot more revenue. that would help to reduce the debt. the federal government doesn't spend much money on energy. energy research is about $6 billion a year. i would like to see it doubled. this report is a blueprint for independence and i think it is the...
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going into effect my next guest says the fiscal cliff is simply y2k fair all over again which amounted to nothing as i recall i agree we're not going to go over the cliff will hug him you know new year's eve he will be out of the work. so basically lots of speculation and very little substance but i can't say i'm not surprised particular day when i look at the recent rhetoric from this do nothing congress take us for example armed services committee just describe the looming defense cuts as quote an unacceptable risk that will quote severely diminished america's global posture right this would be devastating to a country that right now spends as much on its military as the next ten countries combined so would this be the end of defense as we know it that's exactly the question that my next case explored on a panel called the fiscal cliff what does this mean for defense and national security i'm joined now by colonel douglas macgregor thank you so much for taking the time sure so there is so much hype about this lawmakers are saying that this would be absolutely paralyzing to the milita
going into effect my next guest says the fiscal cliff is simply y2k fair all over again which amounted to nothing as i recall i agree we're not going to go over the cliff will hug him you know new year's eve he will be out of the work. so basically lots of speculation and very little substance but i can't say i'm not surprised particular day when i look at the recent rhetoric from this do nothing congress take us for example armed services committee just describe the looming defense cuts as...
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lawmakers have to resolve three issues -- first, the fiscal cliff. second, raising the treasury debt ceiling, which as you know is becoming an issue rarely soon. third, achieving long-term fiscal sustainability. that is deficit reduction and tax increases and spending cuts that allow the gdp ratio to stabilize by the end of the decade. these three things need to be done now. in terms of the fiscal cliff, if policy is unchanged and we go over the cliff and there is still no change after that, the gdp in 2013 will 3.5 percentage points. subtract that and that is a severe recession. cbo and others are probably us are animating how severe that will be -- are underestimating how severe that will be because confidence is very weak. it is unclear how the reserve would response to this. we need to scale back from the cliff. at the very minimum, the cliff needs to be scaled back so it is only a hit to gdp at 1.5% -- 1.5 percentage points at most. if you have more of a drive than that, it it becomes it. the economy will weaken. the budget deduction will deteri
lawmakers have to resolve three issues -- first, the fiscal cliff. second, raising the treasury debt ceiling, which as you know is becoming an issue rarely soon. third, achieving long-term fiscal sustainability. that is deficit reduction and tax increases and spending cuts that allow the gdp ratio to stabilize by the end of the decade. these three things need to be done now. in terms of the fiscal cliff, if policy is unchanged and we go over the cliff and there is still no change after that,...
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all about taxes and not spending cuts in averting the fiscal cliff. >> the facts are at that point the 39.6% does produce the revenue. the differentiation between 39.6% and the 28% at that the president has for limitation on deduction creates a great deal of money as well. >> one conservative financial commentator suggests the likely outcome of the fiscal cliff talks won't be the end of the world. >> we will have taxes that are the same as the taxes were under bill clinton. we did find that we will do fine. >> the question is whether the negotiations will lead to making other tough choices such as washington getting a handle on the growth of government. if not, the european example seems to suggest fiscal trouble to our shores as well. >> john: thanks. the stock were mixed. dow gained 81. s&p 500 up 4. president obama visits detroit and he will see upset people there. mike tobin has the effect. >> michigan democrats say they can't stop, as the republicans have the numbers so despite the angry protests the legislation that rick schneider calls freedom to work will pass the final vote on
all about taxes and not spending cuts in averting the fiscal cliff. >> the facts are at that point the 39.6% does produce the revenue. the differentiation between 39.6% and the 28% at that the president has for limitation on deduction creates a great deal of money as well. >> one conservative financial commentator suggests the likely outcome of the fiscal cliff talks won't be the end of the world. >> we will have taxes that are the same as the taxes were under bill clinton. we...
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can you fix the fiscal cliff and send the economy downward. >> the fiscal cliff, isn't it having real impact in the economy now? >> it's having real impact and name pact will growth longer we take to come to a deal, some deal, any deal. what everybody wants, individuals who are going to be paid in january, they don't know how much and businesses, so what's the deal? what are -- what do we have to plan on? >> the best down payment would be to continue tax rates at the middle class for the rates they are, the best down payment. that's the best easy first step and i hope congress will realize take a step and take it now and give the president something he can sign. >> that has to be the last word. thanks, guys. >>> from the downward slope of the cliff to the upward climb on jobs, a big surprise in the november jobs numbers. it's a step in the right direction, but ali velshi will join me with a look at why we need to do much more. americans believe they should be in charge of their own future. how they'll live tomorrow. for more than 116 years, ameriprise financial has worked for their cl
can you fix the fiscal cliff and send the economy downward. >> the fiscal cliff, isn't it having real impact in the economy now? >> it's having real impact and name pact will growth longer we take to come to a deal, some deal, any deal. what everybody wants, individuals who are going to be paid in january, they don't know how much and businesses, so what's the deal? what are -- what do we have to plan on? >> the best down payment would be to continue tax rates at the middle...
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of course nothing will happen on january 1, the moment the fiscal cliff arrives. it's going to be a slow drip, drip, drip effect as people realize a slowing in spending, the taxes go up, consumers are worried. it won't happen overnight. there's going to be no dramatic over the cliff we go. instead, you will see an evaporation of confidence. you will see an evaporation of business decision-making. that is where the tumor and the cancer will begin. in the united kingdom we have just had higher borrowing numbers and lower growth forecasts. just last week the ecb came out with dreadful, dreadful numbers on how the euro zone is performing. recession this year and possibly next. and you want to play games with something as important as the u.s. budget? i'm going to finish here. the core worry is three weeks out and an inability to do a deal. >> right. so the catastrophe may not come january 1, 2 or even the 30th, the catastrophe is long term because of the erosion of public confidence in the united states. richard, thank you my, my friend. >> it's happening now. >> abso
of course nothing will happen on january 1, the moment the fiscal cliff arrives. it's going to be a slow drip, drip, drip effect as people realize a slowing in spending, the taxes go up, consumers are worried. it won't happen overnight. there's going to be no dramatic over the cliff we go. instead, you will see an evaporation of confidence. you will see an evaporation of business decision-making. that is where the tumor and the cancer will begin. in the united kingdom we have just had higher...
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lawmakers have to resolve three issues -- first, the fiscal cliff. second, raising the treasury debt ceiling, which as you know is becoming an issue rarely soon. -- an issue fairly soon. third, achieving long-term fiscal sustainability. that is deficit reduction and tax increases and spending cuts that allow the gdp ratio to stabilize by the end of the decade. these three things need to be done now. in terms of the fiscal cliff, if policy is unchanged and we go over the cliff and there is still no change after that, the gdp in 2013 will 3.5 percentage points. subtract that and that is a severe recession. cbo and others are probably us are underestimating how severe that will be because confidence is very weak. it is unclear how the reserve would response to this. we need to scale back from the cliff. at the very minimum, the cliff needs to be scaled back so it is only a hit to gdp at 1.5 percentage points at most. if you have more of a drive than that, it it becomes it. -- if you have more vague d rag than that, it becomes unsustainable. the economy
lawmakers have to resolve three issues -- first, the fiscal cliff. second, raising the treasury debt ceiling, which as you know is becoming an issue rarely soon. -- an issue fairly soon. third, achieving long-term fiscal sustainability. that is deficit reduction and tax increases and spending cuts that allow the gdp ratio to stabilize by the end of the decade. these three things need to be done now. in terms of the fiscal cliff, if policy is unchanged and we go over the cliff and there is still...
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not they're going to come close to coming to some sort of agreement on the fiscal cliff. we can't increase spending. we are trying to rein it in and i am not that worried. there are distributional effects. lot of the lower end retailers, dollars or, drug stores have been big beneficiaries on extended unemployment benefits and their business will likely slow. cheryl: let me ask you something. you brought up the issue of the amount of retail dobbs but those are low-wage jobs. i assume the market does not want to see that. nice to see jobs added but not the right type of jobs. >> that is right. 50% of the jobs that were part of today's report of the low-income variety jobs. hospitality, leisure, retail, temporary jobs. we don't want to see that on wall street. we want to see the high-wage jobs because those are the jobs that will sustain a growing economy. they will be able to buy big-ticket items such as cars, a house, durable-goods. that is what you need to really grow this economy and right now we haven't heard any strategy of washington. all we're hearing about are extra
not they're going to come close to coming to some sort of agreement on the fiscal cliff. we can't increase spending. we are trying to rein it in and i am not that worried. there are distributional effects. lot of the lower end retailers, dollars or, drug stores have been big beneficiaries on extended unemployment benefits and their business will likely slow. cheryl: let me ask you something. you brought up the issue of the amount of retail dobbs but those are low-wage jobs. i assume the market...
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speaker, we got a bunch of problems in this country and that's whyhe fiscal cliff, this thing is not the result of taxes, it's as a result of spending and too many people not having jobs to be able to pay in not just their taxes but to be able to sustain our economy. and so we have millions of people that are unemployed and drawing unemployment compensation. we are seeing disabilities rise at a rate of 16% every year. one thing which we note that just before president obama took effect, white house figures show the federal budget was $2.9 trillion. next year's estimate is going to be $3.8 trillion. this is a 31% increase in spending in just four years. we have someone as the president, our great president, who is hung up on tang and spending. what we need is a house of representatives that's hung up on jobs and job creation. the american product. entrepreneurship. creativity. competition wi the world. the ne new great ideas. not that will come from this body but from the creativity of the american people. this is what republicans are trying to keep alive in our country. the idea of s
speaker, we got a bunch of problems in this country and that's whyhe fiscal cliff, this thing is not the result of taxes, it's as a result of spending and too many people not having jobs to be able to pay in not just their taxes but to be able to sustain our economy. and so we have millions of people that are unemployed and drawing unemployment compensation. we are seeing disabilities rise at a rate of 16% every year. one thing which we note that just before president obama took effect, white...
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taxes and not spending cuts in averting the fiscal cliff. >> the facts are that at this point the 39.6% does produce the revenue. the differentiation between the 39 pin 6% and the 28% that the president has for limitation or deductions creates a great deal of money as well. >> one conservative commentator suggested the out come of the fiscal talks won't be the end of the world. >> we will have taxes which are roughly the same as they were underon. we did fine in that. we will do fine. >> the question is whether these negotiations will lead to making other tough choices such as washington getting a handle on the growth of government. if not the european example seems to suggest huge fiscal trouble coming to our shores as well. mike emmanuel, fox news. >>> here is a doozie of a story. a baby mix up at a minneapolis hospital results in a new mother breastfeeding another woman's baby. i told you it was a doozie. the woman given the wrong infant realized that something was not right. >> when they brought cody she thought to herself it didn't look like her other baby. but her husband reassure
taxes and not spending cuts in averting the fiscal cliff. >> the facts are that at this point the 39.6% does produce the revenue. the differentiation between the 39 pin 6% and the 28% that the president has for limitation or deductions creates a great deal of money as well. >> one conservative commentator suggested the out come of the fiscal talks won't be the end of the world. >> we will have taxes which are roughly the same as they were underon. we did fine in that. we will...
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specific revenue increases that reduced the deficit to avoid the fiscal cliff. we should not put off hard decisions of gimmicks or with triggers. that's what got us here in the first place. it's time to bite the bullet and make the tough decisions and make them now. the first thing we should do is immediately and permanently extend a middle-class tax cut. this will provide needed certainty to america's families and businesses and markets. this decisive action will ensure that millions of american families don't see attacks like of more than $2000 starting next month. in year-end agreement must also have a long-term extension of the debt ceiling. america cannot afford another debilitating to school showdown. it has to be a package deal. then we need to enact a long-term and comprehensive deficit solution. most serious plans recommend about $4 trillion deficit reduction over 10 years to restore fiscal balance. the budget control act banks about 1 billion. bringing our troops home from iraq and afghanistan saves another 800 billion. that's real savings. it should b
specific revenue increases that reduced the deficit to avoid the fiscal cliff. we should not put off hard decisions of gimmicks or with triggers. that's what got us here in the first place. it's time to bite the bullet and make the tough decisions and make them now. the first thing we should do is immediately and permanently extend a middle-class tax cut. this will provide needed certainty to america's families and businesses and markets. this decisive action will ensure that millions of...
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cliff. decisions about taxes and spending are extremely important especially when we are adding $300 billion a day to our debt but the constant bickering of dueling politicians on both sides of the aisle, the endless kicking of the can, the brinkmanship as we approach that disaster is making all americans angry. i think you turned off and tuned out and i don't blame you. who can sit still and watch our country dragged into ruinous-and not be a little frustrated? as i said many times i came here from europe 40 years ago and instantly felt the warm embrace of a truly generous and free society and now i see america galloping down the european road. we have already reached european levels of debt and our leaders give as political pablum. we deserve better than this. the other night i left the fiscal cliff behind and took a walk through new york city. it was great. the lights, the christmas tree, rockefeller center, crowds of people with their children. was such a switch. "varney and company" wil
cliff. decisions about taxes and spending are extremely important especially when we are adding $300 billion a day to our debt but the constant bickering of dueling politicians on both sides of the aisle, the endless kicking of the can, the brinkmanship as we approach that disaster is making all americans angry. i think you turned off and tuned out and i don't blame you. who can sit still and watch our country dragged into ruinous-and not be a little frustrated? as i said many times i came here...
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the fiscal cliff potentially sending the economy into recession. the fear of the cliff. is that putting a veil over your eyes and pretending you seeing good news that could make better trades for your portfolio? you need to see the forest for the trees. to help do that, liz saunders in a fox business exclusive, charles schwab's vice president and chief investment strategist. what is the biggest mistake that the investor is making right now as it pertains to navigating that very rocky fiscal cliff landscape? >> they are trying to trade around perceived outcomes. that is fairly treacherous. we don't get a sense that a lot of investors are doing that -- [talking over each other] liz: there were buying in on the dips because they are trading around he headlines. >> there's a lot of tax related strategy happening right now, many of which make a lot of sense, but i have asked the question of loss, what would you put money on a particular outcome? i wouldn't. that is a dangerous strategy. >> one scenario could be as damaging as another. we can gain that at this point, what shou
the fiscal cliff potentially sending the economy into recession. the fear of the cliff. is that putting a veil over your eyes and pretending you seeing good news that could make better trades for your portfolio? you need to see the forest for the trees. to help do that, liz saunders in a fox business exclusive, charles schwab's vice president and chief investment strategist. what is the biggest mistake that the investor is making right now as it pertains to navigating that very rocky fiscal...